My shopping strategy changed today. Instead of buying things to get through a month, I began thinking in longer terms.
The supplies of mineral water and crackers had been restocked. It looked like they will not become a problem.
While there had been some paper goods two weeks ago, today there was done. Fortunately, I had restocked before the crisis, and don’t have to worry. Much of these manufacturing processes are automated, and so I have faith things will be available when I need them.
I realized I would need aspirin in about two months. Despite the demand for pain relievers and cough medicines, it was still available.
I calculated I would run out of lentils in another month. There was only bag of lentils left in the grocery.
Several years ago they disappeared from the stores. I looked online to see if there had been crop failures or a recall, but could find nothing. I was able to get some from Amazon, but they were expensive, as was the shipping by the pound.
Eventually, one local grocery brought in supplies from various Mexican companies. I don’t believe that store still has the same vendors. However, they still are available online.
When lentils did reappear it took about a year before they were clean. Debris falls to the bottom of those large storage silos, and I had to check every spoonful I cooked for bits of rocks. This was true of both the gourmet brands on Amazon and the generic ones normally availably locally. It was a function of gravity aggravated by a failure to fully clean facilities between cargoes.
Rice is the problem. Three days ago when I went looking for it on Amazon, the Wall Street Journal published an article on its pay-to-view website on commodities shortages. [1] Others followed up.
The concerns were wheat and rice. The supply of the first is caught in the mesh of Trump’s trade policies. Prices are rising in the commodities markets, in part, because farmers are planning to plant fewer acres, and changing over to soybeans. [2]
Rice is more complex. The variety I buy comes from California, but most rice in this country is grown in Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi. [3] These are states that have been slow to respond to the threat of the Coronavirus pandemic. However, most of the work now is done by machines.
The prime rice producers in the international market are Thailand, Vietnam, and India. The primary customers are China, India, and other parts of southeastern Asia. [4] Thailand is recovering from a drought, [5] while Vietnam and Cambodia have banned exports. [6] This creates more demand for American-grown rice in the international trade.
The current supply is low. Dwight Roberts of the Rice Producers Association, says there’s "virtually nothing left" for commodities brokers "to trade." However, he said crops are being planted now, and there’s some expectation that "there will be a large amount of acres planted in 2020." [7]
Rice is planted in March, and harvested in September. It’s then threshed, dried, and milled. [8] This year’s crop probably won’t be available until October.
I just looked at my credit card records, and saw that I buy it about every five months. I last got some the end of January. I’ll have none left by the end of June. Then it’s four months til the new crop comes into the market.
The local grocery store still had some rice, but limited supplies to one per customer. I bought what is likely a three-week extension.
The rice and legume shelves in the local grocery were bare of other items. Some green and yellow peas remained. And, so far, there’s no shortage of pinto beans.
Sources:
1. "Wheat and Rice Prices Surge in Coronavirus Lockdown." Wall Street Journal website. 30 March 2020.
2. Alexandra Kelley. "Prices on Some Food Items Are Surging During Coronavirus Pandemic." The Hill website. 31 March 2020.
3. Matt Shipp. "Rice Crop Timeline for the Southern States of Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi." United States Department of Agriculture, Integrated Pest Management Centers website. 1.
4. "Rice." Trading Economics website.
5. Dwight Roberts. "Rice Market Update: Coronavirus + Planting New Crop = ???" Ag Fax website. 12 March 2020.
6. "Cambodia To Ban Some Rice Exports Due to Coronavirus. Fact Box website. 30 March 2020."
7. Roberts.
8. Shipp. 63. I could find out much on the delays between reaping and shipping to customers, but didn’t get the impression it was long.
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