I came across a pamphlet from Alpena, Michigan, that said more than 1,000 cases of small pox had been reported in an 1873 epidemic. The census for 1880, showed 6,153 lived in the city and 8,789 in the county.
Alpena then was a new logging town on the eastern side of Michigan’s lower peninsula. The 52 who died represented .8% of the 1880 population. The totals for the county may have been higher, simply because people were isolated, much like they are in Rio Arriba county.
Small pox differs from our current Coronavirus pandemic because it is highly visible. No one needed a special test to know they were among the 16% who had been infected.
Unfortunately, we have made our problem less visible. Because of the national increase in cases, the commercial testing systems have broken down. On July 26, our governor decreed only those with obvious symptoms could be tested.
Almost immediately, the number of reported cases dropped, but a grimmer manifestation appeared that could not be denied. The number who died started increasing. The total deaths in Rio Arriba County on July 27 was 3; now it’s 7. Thus, while the number of known active cases in the county has dropped by 70%, the number who died has more than doubled.
When I was in town Friday, I saw a headline that said the governor was thinking about letting more businesses open because the number of reported cases had dropped.
Anyone who’s been around LANL, or any other institution that has implemented metrics as an impersonal way to evaluate projects and individuals, knows managers try to game the metrics rather than solve their problems.
Without anyone taking a deliberate action, that’s what’s happened here. Something failed, and the metrics showed progress. That illusionary progress now is being used to justify advancing to the next stage.
Alpena knew when it’s epidemic had passed. We are in the dark.
Sources:
Alpena Dates of Events 1862–1902. Alpena, Michigan: Argus, 1915.
Wikipedia. "2020 Coronavirus Pandemic in New Mexico." Updated daily.
No comments:
Post a Comment